Track record · closed signal

The TJX Companies Inc (TJX) — closed signal from July 9, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 7, 2026 — -9.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TJX price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$147.07 – $153.03Entry zone — fair-value band

$153.21Published — price the day we called it

$171.05Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$162.53Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$138.80Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 51% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-9.4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+6.1%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+3.7%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$138.80

last close inside the window, ended October 7, 2026

Peak price

$162.53

peak on July 29, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published July 9, 2026

Predicted growth

+12%

over the measurement window

Target price

$171.05

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$147.07 – $153.03

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$153.21

published July 9, 2026

Confidence

70%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TJX runs discount stores that sell brand-name goods at lower prices, which tends to hold up when shoppers hunt bargains. Earnings have been steady and the dividend helps sentiment. Recent price drop makes timing better, but a high valuation, low trading activity, and weak price momentum suggest only a modest rebound is likely in the next few months.

Primary drivers

Discount model attracts shoppers looking for bargains, which helps sales stability
Reliable earnings make the business less cyclical than many retailers
Dividend and attention from large investors help keep sentiment steady
Recent pullback makes a shorter-term buying opportunity more sensible

How it played out

TJX: rose 6.1%, then finished below its publication price

Lyra published TJX at $153.21 with expected growth of 12% and a $171.05 target. The thesis pointed to bargain-seeking shoppers, reliable earnings, the dividend, attention from large investors, and a recent pullback. It also noted the high valuation, low trading activity, and weak price momentum.

The shares reached a window peak of $162.53 on July 29, a gain of 6.1%. That peak stayed below the target, which was never reached. TJX ended the window at $138.80, below its publication price. The thesis partially played out early, but the expected rebound did not hold.

What happened during the window

On August 19, 2026, TJX reported second-quarter comparable sales growth of 4% and raised its full-year pretax profit margin and earnings guidance. It also said net sales were $15.2 billion, up 5% from the prior-year quarter.

TJX Reports Q2 FY27 Results

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All TJX signals