Track record · closed signal

Five Below Inc (FIVE) — closed signal from July 9, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 7, 2026 — +10.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

FIVE price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$176.00 – $188.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$184.73Published — price the day we called it

$225.37Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$263.88Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$204.24Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 27 days.

At window close

+10.6%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+42.8%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+3.7%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$204.24

last close inside the window, ended October 7, 2026

Peak price

$263.88

peak on August 24, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published July 9, 2026

Predicted growth

+22%

over the measurement window

Target price

$225.37

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$176.00 – $188.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$184.73

published July 9, 2026

Confidence

72%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Five Below looks like a reasonable rebound candidate because recent sales and results were solid, the stock's price pulled back and now offers a clearer balance between risk and reward, and a notable broker upgrade adds weight to recovery hopes. Still, consumer spending cycles, light trading volume, and only modest price confirmation keep confidence measured for the next 0-3 months.

Primary drivers

Broker upgrade helps justify a valuation reset and recovery case
Recent results show the company is merchandising and selling well
Discount retail model can win back shoppers after the pullback
Stock looks reasonably valued compared with expected growth

How it played out

FIVE: target reached in 27 days

Lyra published a short-term rebound thesis on July 9, 2026, with 22% expected growth from $184.73. The thesis pointed to solid recent sales and results, a pullback that improved the risk-reward balance, a broker upgrade, the discount retail model, and valuation against expected growth. Confidence was 72%, with consumer spending cycles, light trading volume, and modest price confirmation cited as limits.

The stock reached $225.37 in 27 days. It later peaked at $263.88 on August 24, 2026, a 42.8% gain within the window. It ended at $204.24 on October 7, 2026, still above the published price but below its peak. The thesis played out and exceeded its stated target.

What happened during the window

On September 2, 2026, Five Below reported that second-quarter net sales rose 22.9% to $1.26 billion and comparable sales rose 14.1%. It also raised its full-year sales and earnings outlook. On September 23, 2026, the company announced Scott Settersten's appointment to its board and audit committee, effective September 21.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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