Track record · closed signal

Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc (AUPH) — closed signal from July 8, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 6, 2026 — -5.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

AUPH price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$16.54 Published $18.03 Target $15.69 Window close $17.80 Peak
$15.80 – $16.70Entry zone — fair-value band
$16.54Published — price the day we called it
$18.03Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$17.80Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$15.69Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 84% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close
-5.1%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+7.6%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+4.8%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$15.69
last close inside the window, ended October 6, 2026
Peak price
$17.80
peak on August 20, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published July 8, 2026

Predicted growth
+9%
over the measurement window
Target price
$18.03
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$15.80 – $16.70
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$16.54
published July 8, 2026
Confidence
67%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Aurinia is a small healthcare recovery idea tied to sales of LUPKYNIS, other pipeline hopes, and investor attention. Recent press caused a price uptick and a higher outside valuation, but the company's official upside looks limited and trading activity is light. The stock may try to rebound over 0-3 months, yet heavy short positions and negative price momentum raise the chance of further swings.

Primary drivers

  • LUPKYNIS sales remain the main commercial growth driver
  • Pipeline progress and activist attention create extra upside possibilities
  • A solid balance sheet reduces small-company financial risk
  • Low trading volume and many short positions make price swings larger

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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