Track record · closed signal

Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) — closed signal from August 14, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 12, 2025 — +39.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

CAT price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$410.39 Published $462.41 Target $573.02 Window close $596.21 Peak
$405.67 – $409.64Entry zone — fair-value band
$410.39Published — price the day we called it
$462.41Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$596.21Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$573.02Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 35 days.

At window close
+39.6%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+45.3%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+6.3%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$573.02
last close inside the window, ended November 12, 2025
Peak price
$596.21
peak on October 29, 2025 — not a realized return
Days to target
35

The thesis — published August 14, 2025

Predicted growth
+13%
over the measurement window
Target price
$462.41
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$405.67 – $409.64
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$410.39
published August 14, 2025
Confidence
65%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Caterpillar looks out of favor after a quick drop, which can set up a short-term bounce. Investor mood is strong, backed by a 93% score from a broad checklist and upbeat news. Still, the market worries about slowing core sales. We prefer small, staged buys on dips, aiming for a snap-back while remembering the business moves with the economy and the stock is priced richly.

Primary drivers

  • Price looks washed out, which often leads to a short-lived recovery move.
  • A broad rating and recent news suggest many buyers feel optimistic now about shares.
  • Parts and services bring steady fees that help smooth ups and downs over time.
  • Sales remain soft, a well-known risk that could limit near-term progress for investors.

How it played out

CAT: target reached in 35 days

Lyra published CAT at $410.39 on 2025-08-14 with an expected 13% gain. The target was $462.41. The thesis pointed to a washed-out price after a quick drop, strong investor mood with a 93% checklist score, upbeat news, steadier parts and services fees, and soft sales as a risk that could limit near-term progress.

Inside the window, CAT reached the target in 35 days. The stock kept rising and peaked at $596.21 on 2025-10-29, a 45.3% gain. It ended the window at $573.02 on 2025-11-12. The thesis played out and then went well past the target.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-29, Caterpillar reported third-quarter revenue of $17.64 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $4.95. The company also reported a record backlog of $39.8 billion and said full-year 2025 revenue was expected to be modestly higher than the prior year.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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