Track record · closed signal

Citigroup Inc. (C) — closed signal from July 8, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 6, 2026 — -7.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

C price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$139.05 Published $148.03 Target $128.52 Window close $143.56 Peak
$134.63 – $139.58Entry zone — fair-value band
$139.05Published — price the day we called it
$148.03Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$143.56Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$128.52Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 46% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-7.6%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+3.2%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+4.8%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$128.52
last close inside the window, ended October 6, 2026
Peak price
$143.56
peak on July 14, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published July 8, 2026

Predicted growth
+7%
over the measurement window
Target price
$148.03
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$134.63 – $139.58
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$139.05
published July 8, 2026
Confidence
68%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Citigroup has a clear near-term event with upcoming Q2 results and recent coverage that values the stock, while banking sector news about stress-test strength has renewed attention. The stock looks oversold near its trend, but insider trades, only modest upside in the valuation, and continuing downward price momentum limit conviction.

Primary drivers

  • Q2 earnings provide a near-term event that can change sentiment
  • Valuation work shows only limited upside left
  • Recent stress-test news has improved sector sentiment
  • Insider selling and weak price momentum keep conviction low

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All C signals