Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from July 8, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 6, 2026 — +20.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$198.52 Published $222.34 Target $239.24 Window close $243.37 Peak
$190.00 – $200.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$198.52Published — price the day we called it
$222.34Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$243.37Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$239.24Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 29 days.

At window close
+20.5%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+22.6%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+4.8%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$239.24
last close inside the window, ended October 6, 2026
Peak price
$243.37
peak on October 6, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
29

The thesis — published July 8, 2026

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$222.34
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$190.00 – $200.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$198.52
published July 8, 2026
Confidence
73%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA is the clear leader in chips and software that power AI, with strong profits and a solid balance sheet. The main question is short-term timing: big swings in AI and chip stocks, index changes, and shifting investor money can quickly move the stock. Recent negative price signals and high volatility limit its top-tier status, but if the stock steadies, there is realistic upside in the next 0-3 months.

Primary drivers

  • Leads the market in AI chips and related software
  • Strong cash and profits support long-term investment
  • Investor rotations can quickly change chip valuations
  • Calmer price action after recent volatility can restore momentum

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NVDA signals