Track record · closed signal

Broadcom Inc (AVGO) — closed signal from July 8, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 6, 2026 — -1.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

AVGO price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$381.89 Published $431.53 Target $375.81 Window close $432.73 Peak
$365.00 – $385.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$381.89Published — price the day we called it
$431.53Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$432.73Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$375.81Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 33 days.

At window close
-1.6%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+13.3%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+4.8%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$375.81
last close inside the window, ended October 6, 2026
Peak price
$432.73
peak on August 10, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
33

The thesis — published July 8, 2026

Predicted growth
+13%
over the measurement window
Target price
$431.53
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$365.00 – $385.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$381.89
published July 8, 2026
Confidence
75%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Broadcom gets a clear boost from Apple moving chip work to the U.S., which supports demand for Broadcom's custom chips and AI-related infrastructure. The business looks healthy, but the stock is pricey, carries debt, and insiders and recent negative price momentum make it riskier. A short-term constructive view depends on the price holding in the current range.

Primary drivers

  • Apple's U.S. chip move raises demand for custom chips
  • Broadcom serves AI networking and infrastructure needs
  • High valuation and debt make risk controls important
  • Negative price momentum suggests waiting for confirmation

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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