Track record · closed signal

Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD) — closed signal from July 7, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 5, 2026 — +8.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

GILD price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$124.59 – $132.50Entry zone — fair-value band

$133.69Published — price the day we called it

$151.56Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$154.20Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$144.63Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 73 days.

At window close

+8.2%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+15.3%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+3.9%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$144.63

last close inside the window, ended October 5, 2026

Peak price

$154.20

peak on September 23, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published July 7, 2026

Predicted growth

+14%

over the measurement window

Target price

$151.56

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$124.59 – $132.50

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$133.69

published July 7, 2026

Confidence

73%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Gilead is seen as a safer healthcare stock with a clearer company-specific boost than many peers. The wider approval for Trodelvy could meaningfully increase cancer drug sales and help offset slow growth elsewhere. The company is profitable and has a track record of meeting earnings, which supports interest, but the recent price rise looks extended and insider selling lowers top-tier conviction.

Primary drivers

Wider Trodelvy approval could expand cancer drug sales
Healthcare status makes the stock steadier in weak markets
Consistent profits and earnings help support the stock
Recent insider selling and strong price run reduce conviction

How it played out

GILD: target reached in 73 days

On July 7, Lyra published a short-term thesis for 14% growth from $133.69, with a $151.56 target. The thesis pointed to a wider Trodelvy approval, the stock's healthcare profile, consistent profits and earnings, and lower conviction after insider selling and a strong price run.

During the window, GILD reached the $151.56 target in 73 days. It peaked at $154.20 on September 23, a 15.3% gain, then ended at $144.63 on October 5. The closing price was below the target, but the peak cleared it within the measurement period. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On August 4, Gilead reported second-quarter product sales excluding Veklury of $7.6 billion, up 10% from a year earlier. On August 24, the European Commission approved Trodelvy with Keytruda for certain patients with first-line metastatic triple-negative breast cancer.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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