Track record · closed signal

Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) — closed signal from July 7, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 5, 2026 — -6.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

GOOGL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$371.90 Published $435.12 Target $346.47 Window close $384.48 Peak
$360.00 – $374.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$371.90Published — price the day we called it
$435.12Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$384.48Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$346.47Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 20% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-6.8%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+3.4%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+3.9%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$346.47
last close inside the window, ended October 5, 2026
Peak price
$384.48
peak on August 5, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published July 7, 2026

Predicted growth
+17%
over the measurement window
Target price
$435.12
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$360.00 – $374.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$371.90
published July 7, 2026
Confidence
82%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Alphabet combines steady sales growth, a strong balance sheet, and clear near-term news that helps visibility. The upcoming quarterly report is a near-term check on performance, and the company's backing of Proxima points to long-term bets on AI and power infrastructure. Trading activity looks healthy, so the setup is appealing if the price holds its recent range.

Primary drivers

  • Quarterly report offers a near-term performance check
  • Search and Cloud are the main money generators
  • Proxima support signals long-term AI and power optionality
  • Strong balance sheet helps weather volatile markets

How it played out

GOOGL: the 17% thesis missed its target

Lyra published a short-term thesis at 371.90, expecting 17% growth toward 435.12. The thesis pointed to the quarterly report as a near-term check, Search and Cloud as the main money generators, Proxima support as a long-term bet on artificial intelligence and power infrastructure, and the balance sheet as protection in volatile markets.

Inside the window, GOOGL rose to 384.48 on 2026-08-05, a peak gain of 3.4%. It stayed below the target throughout the period and ended at 346.47. The published thesis did not play out.

What happened during the window

On July 22, 2026, Alphabet reported second-quarter revenue of $119.8 billion, up 24%, and Google Cloud revenue of $24.8 billion, up 82%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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