Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from July 7, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 5, 2026 — +24.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$192.46 Published $234.80 Target $238.90 Window close $240.10 Peak
$184.00 – $193.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$192.46Published — price the day we called it
$234.80Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$240.10Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$238.90Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 87 days.

At window close
+24.1%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+24.8%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+3.9%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$238.90
last close inside the window, ended October 5, 2026
Peak price
$240.10
peak on October 5, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
87

The thesis — published July 7, 2026

Predicted growth
+22%
over the measurement window
Target price
$234.80
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$184.00 – $193.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$192.46
published July 7, 2026
Confidence
80%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA is the top name for selling the chips and systems used in AI data centers. Recent weakness in the chip group after an industry report has caused investors to trim risk, so the short-term outlook is choppier. Still, strong demand from data centers, excellent profit margins, and a recent price pullback create a believable path for a rebound if selling eases in the next quarter.

Primary drivers

  • AI data-center demand is the main growth engine
  • Sector volatility reset investor expectations recently
  • Execution and profit margins are industry-leading
  • Ongoing broad interest in chips supports a rebound path

How it played out

NVDA: target reached in 87 days

Lyra published the NVDA thesis on July 7, 2026, at $192.46, with 22% expected growth and a $234.80 target. The thesis pointed to artificial intelligence data-center demand, strong profit margins, broad interest in chips, and a recent pullback as the basis for a rebound. It also noted that sector volatility had made the short-term outlook choppier.

NVDA reached the target in 87 days. It peaked at $240.10 on October 5, a 24.8% gain, and ended the window at $238.90. The peak and closing price were both above the published target. The thesis played out in full.

What happened during the window

On August 26, 2026, NVIDIA reported second-quarter revenue of $96.2 billion, up 106% from a year earlier, and data-center revenue of $89.0 billion, up 117%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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