Track record · closed signal

Equinox Gold Corp (EQX) — closed signal from July 6, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 4, 2026 — +7.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

EQX price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$9.80 – $10.40Entry zone — fair-value band

$10.32Published — price the day we called it

$12.59Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$14.08Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$11.11Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 44 days.

At window close

+7.7%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+36.4%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+2.7%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$11.11

last close inside the window, ended October 4, 2026

Peak price

$14.08

peak on August 25, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published July 6, 2026

Predicted growth

+22%

over the measurement window

Target price

$12.59

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$9.80 – $10.40

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$10.32

published July 6, 2026

Confidence

77%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Equinox Gold stands out as a smaller mining company with a clear near-term event: land-access agreements at Los Filos that reduce a major obstacle to restarting the mine. Ownership of gold-producing assets also gives the stock some protection if broader stocks fall. Execution and commodity swings keep risk higher than for larger miners.

Primary drivers

Land-access deals lower a key restart obstacle
Gold exposure reduces downside in weak markets
Sales recovery and better margins boost profits
Above-average investor interest supports momentum

How it played out

EQX: target reached in 44 days

Lyra published EQX at $10.32 with a $12.59 target and expected 22% growth. The thesis pointed to land-access deals that lowered a restart obstacle at Los Filos, gold exposure in weak markets, a recovery in sales and margins, and above-average investor interest. It also noted execution and commodity risks.

EQX reached the $12.59 target in 44 days. It later peaked at $14.08 on August 25, a 36.4% gain, then ended the window at $11.11. The closing price was below the target, but the published target had already been reached inside the short-term window. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On July 9, 2026, Equinox Gold reported its second-quarter production results. On July 31, 2026, Equinox Gold and Orla Mining completed their business combination.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All EQX signals