Track record · closed signal

Broadcom Inc (AVGO) — closed signal from July 6, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 4, 2026 — -6.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

AVGO price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$378.72 Published $439.32 Target $355.14 Window close $432.73 Peak
$365.00 – $382.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$378.72Published — price the day we called it
$439.32Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$432.73Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$355.14Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 89% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close
-6.2%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+14.3%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+2.7%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$355.14
last close inside the window, ended October 4, 2026
Peak price
$432.73
peak on August 10, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published July 6, 2026

Predicted growth
+16%
over the measurement window
Target price
$439.32
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$365.00 – $382.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$378.72
published July 6, 2026
Confidence
75%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Apple extended a big product relationship, which makes Broadcoms future sales easier to predict and supports demand for AI networking and custom chips. Profit growth is healthy, but the company carries high debt, insiders selling shares, and recent price action is weak, so this looks attractive but riskier than top-tier picks.

Primary drivers

  • Longer Apple deal improves near-term sales visibility
  • Growing need for AI networking and custom chips lifts demand
  • Strong profit margins and earnings growth support upside
  • Debt levels and insider selling mean tighter risk controls

How it played out

AVGO: thesis partially played out, target missed

Lyra published AVGO at $378.72 with a 16% short-term growth thesis and a $439.32 target. The thesis pointed to a longer Apple relationship, demand for artificial intelligence networking and custom chips, and healthy profit growth. It also cited high debt, insider selling, and weak recent price action as risks.

AVGO peaked at $432.73 on August 10, a 14.3% gain, but it stayed below the target. It never got there. By October 4, the price had fallen to $355.14, below the $365 to $382 entry zone and the $378.72 publication price. The thesis partially played out because the shares approached the expected gain, then ended the window below the starting level.

What happened during the window

On September 2, 2026, Broadcom reported third-quarter revenue of $29.6 billion, up 86% from the prior-year period, and announced a quarterly dividend of $0.65 per share.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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