Track record · closed signal

Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) — closed signal from July 6, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 4, 2026 — -4.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

GOOGL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$359.29 Published $416.78 Target $343.50 Window close $384.48 Peak
$350.00 – $365.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$359.29Published — price the day we called it
$416.78Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$384.48Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$343.50Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 44% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-4.4%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+7%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+2.7%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$343.50
last close inside the window, ended October 4, 2026
Peak price
$384.48
peak on August 5, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published July 6, 2026

Predicted growth
+16%
over the measurement window
Target price
$416.78
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$350.00 – $365.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$359.29
published July 6, 2026
Confidence
78%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Alphabet combines search, video, and cloud services plus AI work that together make its sales steady and diversified. Recent market talk favoring big cloud providers helps demand for the stock. Earnings are reliable, though regulation, AI-related costs, and insider selling are risks. The short-term price pattern looks constructive.

Primary drivers

  • Market focus on big cloud providers helps demand
  • Search, YouTube and cloud give varied revenue sources
  • Strong balance sheet lowers downside risk
  • Short-term price action sits near trend support

How it played out

GOOGL: the 16% target was not reached

Lyra published a short-term thesis at $359.29 and expected 16% growth. The thesis pointed to demand for large cloud providers, varied revenue from search, YouTube, and cloud, a strong balance sheet, and price action near trend support. It also cited regulation, artificial intelligence costs, and insider selling as risks.

The price reached its window peak of $384.48 on August 5, a 7% gain. It stayed below the $416.78 target. By October 4, it had fallen to $343.50, below the publication price and the $350 to $365 entry zone. The thesis missed.

What happened during the window

On July 22, 2026, Alphabet reported that quarterly revenue rose 24% to $119.8 billion. Google Cloud revenue rose 82% to $24.8 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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