Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from July 6, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 4, 2026 — +20.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$194.77 Published $233.72 Target $233.95 Window close $237.88 Peak
$185.00 – $198.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$194.77Published — price the day we called it
$233.72Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$237.88Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$233.95Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 60 days.

At window close
+20.1%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+22.1%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+2.7%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$233.95
last close inside the window, ended October 4, 2026
Peak price
$237.88
peak on October 2, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
60

The thesis — published July 6, 2026

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$233.72
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$185.00 – $198.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$194.77
published July 6, 2026
Confidence
81%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA is a clear leader in AI hardware and software with strong sales growth, high profit margins, and a solid balance sheet. Recent news about memory and other AI equipment helps demand. Lots more people are buying than usual and the stock looks oversold, which could spark a rebound, but short-term selling pressure and money moving within the chip sector limit certainty.

Primary drivers

  • Demand for AI chips is the main driver of revenue and profits
  • A strong balance sheet helps cushion the stock in downturns
  • Positive memory and hardware news supports spending on infrastructure
  • Recent heavy selling makes a tactical price rebound more likely

How it played out

NVDA: target reached in 60 days

Lyra published the NVDA thesis at 194.77 and expected 20% growth over the short term. The thesis pointed to demand for artificial intelligence chips, strong sales growth, high profit margins, a solid balance sheet, supportive memory and hardware news, and heavy recent selling that could lead to a rebound.

The stock reached the 233.72 target in 60 days. It later peaked at 237.88 on October 2, a gain of 22.1%, and ended the window at 233.95. The peak exceeded the target, and the closing price remained above it. The thesis played out in full.

What happened during the window

On August 26, 2026, NVIDIA reported second-quarter revenue of $96.2 billion, up 106% from a year earlier, and Data Center revenue of $89.0 billion, up 117%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Share this receipt

A scored call, published before the outcome was known. Paste the link anywhere — it unfurls as the card above.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NVDA signals