Track record · closed signal

Citigroup Inc. (C) — closed signal from August 14, 2025

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 12, 2025 — +9.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

C price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$91.90 – $94.37Entry zone — fair-value band

$93.99Published — price the day we called it

$105.58Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$104.96Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$102.87Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 90% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

+9.4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+11.7%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+6.3%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$102.87

last close inside the window, ended November 12, 2025

Peak price

$104.96

peak on September 23, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published August 14, 2025

Predicted growth

+13%

over the measurement window

Target price

$105.58

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$91.90 – $94.37

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$93.99

published August 14, 2025

Confidence

71%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Citigroup's price looks beaten down and starting to turn up. Positive mood grew after a 7% dividend increase and hires to grow its private credit lending. Many buyers are stepping in, and recent price action shows improving strength. Over the next 1-3 months, a rebound is reasonable, but headlines and changing interest-rate plans could shake things. Start with small positions and add carefully to limit losses.

Primary drivers

Shares look oversold and are beginning to recover as buyers return
Higher dividend improves income and signals confidence in cash flow
Hiring for private credit suggests growth in a profitable lending area
Price action and trends show strengthening momentum in recent weeks

How it played out

C: rose 11.7% but stayed below the target

Lyra published C at 93.99 on 2025-08-14 with expected growth of 13%. The thesis pointed to shares that looked oversold and beginning to recover, a 7% dividend increase, hiring for private credit lending, and stronger recent price action. It also noted that headlines and changing interest-rate plans could shake the trade.

Inside the window, C rose to a peak of 104.96 on 2025-09-23, a 11.7% gain, but stayed below the 105.58 target. It ended at 102.87 on 2025-11-12. The thesis mostly played out on direction, but it missed the published target.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All C signals