Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from August 14, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 12, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$182.28 Published $231.47 Target $193.79 Window close $212.18 Peak
$175.96 – $182.96Entry zone — fair-value band
$182.28Published — price the day we called it
$231.47Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$212.18Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$193.79Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 61% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$212.18
peak on October 29, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+16.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$193.79
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
August 14, 2025 – November 12, 2025

The thesis — published August 14, 2025

Predicted growth
+27%
over the measurement window
Target price
$231.47
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$175.96 – $182.96
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$182.28
published August 14, 2025
Confidence
76%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Consider adding on dips. The stock has pulled back, but the recent average price is still rising, hinting the bigger uptrend is intact. Demand for AI chips in data centers, healthcare, and smarter cars is strong. New industry reports suggest a wider potential customer base. Short term looks soft, but steady buying interest and a supportive market point to a possible 3-month move back toward earlier highs.

Primary drivers

  • AI demand is broadening across many industries and uses
  • Pullback signals are easing while the recent average price climbs
  • Heavier-than-usual buying shows investors step in on downturns
  • Fresh reports point to faster growth in AI-related markets

How it played out

NVDA: thesis partly played out but target was missed

Lyra published NVDA at 182.28 on 2025-08-14, with expected growth of 27% toward 231.47. The thesis pointed to broadening demand for artificial intelligence chips in data centers, healthcare, and smarter cars. It also pointed to easing pullback signals, a rising recent average price, heavier buying on downturns, and fresh reports on faster growth in related markets.

Inside the window, the stock rose but never reached 231.47. It peaked at 212.18 on 2025-10-29, with a 16.4% gain, then ended at 193.79 on 2025-11-12. The direction was right, but the target was missed. The thesis partly played out.

What happened during the window

On August 27, 2025, NVIDIA reported second quarter fiscal 2026 revenue of $46.743 billion. On September 22, 2025, NVIDIA and OpenAI announced a strategic partnership tied to at least 10 gigawatts of NVIDIA systems.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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