Track record · closed signal

Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) — closed signal from July 3, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 1, 2026 — +47% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

PLTR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$129.30 Published $153.87 Target $190.04 Window close $194.68 Peak
$120.00 – $130.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$129.30Published — price the day we called it
$153.87Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$194.68Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$190.04Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 32 days.

At window close
+47%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+50.6%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+2.8%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$190.04
last close inside the window, ended October 1, 2026
Peak price
$194.68
peak on September 24, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
32

The thesis — published July 3, 2026

Predicted growth
+19%
over the measurement window
Target price
$153.87
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$120.00 – $130.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$129.30
published July 3, 2026
Confidence
66%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Palantir is seeing strong growth in its AI software work, helped by a big partner deal, a research upgrade, and a government contract. That shows both commercial and public demand. However, the stock price already reflects a lot of hope, so small disappointments could cause big drops in the next few months.

Primary drivers

  • Bigger deal with NVIDIA boosts AI product credibility
  • Army Foundry win confirms government demand
  • More companies using Palantir's AI supports sales growth
  • High price expectations make downside sharper on news

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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