Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from July 3, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 1, 2026 — +18.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$194.83 Published $239.64 Target $230.86 Window close $234.50 Peak
$185.00 – $197.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$194.83Published — price the day we called it
$239.64Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$234.50Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$230.86Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 89% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close
+18.5%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+20.4%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+2.8%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$230.86
last close inside the window, ended October 1, 2026
Peak price
$234.50
peak on September 4, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published July 3, 2026

Predicted growth
+23%
over the measurement window
Target price
$239.64
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$185.00 – $197.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$194.83
published July 3, 2026
Confidence
78%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA looks like a strong business tied to the AI boom, but the stock has been bouncy and risky in the short term. Company fundamentals are excellent and recent chip-industry profit talk supports demand for its products. The market appears oversold rather than confirmed up, so disciplined buying near identified support makes sense while sector volatility and AI spending scrutiny remain risks.

Primary drivers

  • AI data-center demand is the main driver of growth
  • Chip profit commentary reinforces demand for NVIDIA gear
  • Strong profit margins and cash make the company more resilient
  • Recent heavy selling could set up a rebound if it stabilizes

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NVDA signals