Track record · closed signal

Patria Investments Ltd (PAX) — closed signal from July 2, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 30, 2026 — -8.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

PAX price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$10.50 – $10.98Entry zone — fair-value band

$11.06Published — price the day we called it

$12.54Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$11.85Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$10.15Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 47% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-8.2%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+7.1%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+2.7%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$10.15

last close inside the window, ended September 30, 2026

Peak price

$11.85

peak on August 26, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published July 2, 2026

Predicted growth

+15%

over the measurement window

Target price

$12.54

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$10.50 – $10.98

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$11.06

published July 2, 2026

Confidence

67%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Patria is a smaller investment firm that could gain if Latin American demand for alternative assets stays healthy. The chairman recently bought shares, which aligns management with shareholders. Trading is light and earnings have bounced up and down, so gains may be limited near term. Stability around the stock's support level is important because low trading volume raises the chance of price swings.

Primary drivers

Chairman buying shares increases management alignment with owners
Business offers exposure to growing alternative investments in Latin America
Valuation is not high, so the stock could be re-rated higher
Low trading volume raises the chance of sharp moves and keeps risk higher

How it played out

PAX: the 15% thesis missed its target

Lyra published a short-term thesis for PAX at 11.06, with 15% expected growth and a 12.54 target. The thesis pointed to chairman share purchases, demand for alternative investments in Latin America, a valuation that could rise, and the risk from light trading.

PAX rose to 11.85 on August 26, a 7.1% peak gain. It never reached 12.54. By September 30, it had fallen to 10.15, below the 11.06 publication price. The thesis partially played out during the rise, but the expected 15% gain missed and the signal ended as a miss overall.

What happened during the window

On July 2, Patria reported that its Secondary Opportunities Fund V had closed with more than USD 670 million in commitments. On July 31, the company reported second-quarter fee-related earnings of USD 57.1 million and distributable earnings of USD 0.32 per share.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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