Track record · closed signal

Dorian LPG Ltd (LPG) — closed signal from July 2, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 30, 2026 — +54.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

LPG price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$33.23 – $35.15Entry zone — fair-value band

$35.68Published — price the day we called it

$42.23Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$59.97Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$55.06Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 19 days.

At window close

+54.3%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+68.1%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+2.7%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$55.06

last close inside the window, ended September 30, 2026

Peak price

$59.97

peak on September 17, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published July 2, 2026

Predicted growth

+21%

over the measurement window

Target price

$42.23

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$33.23 – $35.15

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$35.68

published July 2, 2026

Confidence

76%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Dorian LPG should see concrete near-term benefits from booked charters, replacing older ships, and selling some assets. If shipping fees stay steady over the next few months, profits and margins look adequate. Trading interest is weak and there are few trades, so the situation is measurable but still risky compared with non-cyclical businesses.

Primary drivers

Booked charters should produce cash soon and make revenue more predictable
Replacing and selling vessels gives more financial flexibility
Shares trade cheaply relative to shipping peers, offering a buffer
Recent weak trading makes a rebound possible if rates hold

How it played out

LPG: target reached in 19 days

Lyra published LPG at $35.68 on July 2, with 21% expected growth and a $42.23 target. The thesis pointed to booked charters, fleet replacement and vessel sales, a low valuation versus shipping peers, and the chance of a rebound if shipping rates held. It also noted weak trading and the added risk of a cyclical business.

The shares reached the target in 19 days. They later peaked at $59.97 on September 17, a 68.1% gain, then ended the window at $55.06 on September 30. The peak and closing price both cleared the published target. The thesis played out, and the measured price outcome exceeded the expected growth.

What happened during the window

On July 16, Dorian LPG announced a $1.00 irregular cash dividend and said it had completed the sale of Corsair. On September 4, the company said it had fixed 99% of its calendar days for the quarter ending September 30 at a rate above $88,000 per day.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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