Track record · closed signal

Allison Transmission Holdings Inc (ALSN) — closed signal from July 2, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 30, 2026 — -5.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

ALSN price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$115.48 – $120.46Entry zone — fair-value band

$120.29Published — price the day we called it

$134.43Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$134.66Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$113.26Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 99% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

-5.8%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+11.9%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+2.7%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$113.26

last close inside the window, ended September 30, 2026

Peak price

$134.66

peak on August 26, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published July 2, 2026

Predicted growth

+12%

over the measurement window

Target price

$134.43

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$115.48 – $120.46

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$120.29

published July 2, 2026

Confidence

70%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Allison has clear near-term events that can drive interest: joining the S&P MidCap index and a big defense order from BAE. These items have helped the stock recently and point to potential demand. However, recent earnings fell short and cash is low compared with debt, so prices could swing after the events. The setup looks constructive but remains tied to specific news.

Primary drivers

Index inclusion can create extra buying interest
Large BAE defense order raises revenue visibility
Industrial end markets are slowly improving
Event-driven moves can cause price swings afterward

How it played out

ALSN: peak reached 134.66, then ended at 113.26

Lyra published a short-term thesis at 120.29, expecting 12% growth toward 134.43. The thesis pointed to index inclusion, the BAE defense order, gradually improving industrial markets, and the chance of price swings after those events. It also noted that recent earnings had fallen short and cash was low relative to debt.

ALSN reached a peak of 134.66 on August 26, with a peak gain of 11.9%. The peak price was above 134.43, but the recorded result did not show a target-reaching day. The stock then fell and ended the window at 113.26 on September 30. The thesis partially played out, but the gain did not hold.

What happened during the window

On July 22, 2026, Allison announced that it would supply transmissions for about 3,000 EAGLE V armored vehicles, with an option covering up to 2,000 more. On August 3, 2026, the company reported second-quarter net sales of $1,566 million and net income of $181 million.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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