Track record · closed signal

The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) — closed signal from August 14, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 12, 2025 — +1.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

SCHW price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$96.02 Published $111.07 Target $97.43 Window close $98.22 Peak
$93.47 – $95.95Entry zone — fair-value band
$96.02Published — price the day we called it
$111.07Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$98.22Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$97.43Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 14% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
+1.5%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+2.3%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+6.3%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$97.43
last close inside the window, ended November 12, 2025
Peak price
$98.22
peak on November 12, 2025 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published August 14, 2025

Predicted growth
+16%
over the measurement window
Target price
$111.07
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$93.47 – $95.95
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$96.02
published August 14, 2025
Confidence
82%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Schwab looks beaten down but starting to stabilize. July data showed client assets up 15% compared to last year and new accounts stay healthy. A respected fund, PRIMECAP, raised its stake by 35.9%, a strong vote of confidence. The recent average price is turning up and sentiment is firmer, so a bounce is likely as activity normalizes. One risk: a slower sign still leans negative, so buy in small steps on dips.

Primary drivers

  • Client assets rose 15% compared to last year, showing solid growth
  • Shares look beaten down, setting up for a potential near-term rebound
  • PRIMECAP increased its stake, signaling confidence from a major investor
  • Recent average price is turning up as market conditions calm down

How it played out

SCHW: the target was not reached

On 2025-08-14, Lyra published a short-term SCHW thesis at 96.02. It expected 16% growth to 111.07. The thesis pointed to client assets up 15% compared to last year, healthy new accounts, PRIMECAP raising its stake by 35.9%, a beaten-down share price, and a recent average price turning up.

Inside the window from 2025-08-14 to 2025-11-12, SCHW peaked at 98.22 on 2025-11-12. That was a 2.3% gain, but it stayed below 111.07. The stock ended at 97.43. The thesis only partially played out. It never got there.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-17, Investors.com reported that Schwab beat third-quarter estimates, with earnings up 70% and revenue up 27%. The article also reported $137.5 billion in core net new assets and total client assets of $11.59 trillion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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