Track record · closed signal

Equinox Gold Corp (EQX) — closed signal from July 2, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 30, 2026 — +6.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

EQX price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$10.00 – $10.50Entry zone — fair-value band

$10.45Published — price the day we called it

$12.95Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$14.08Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$11.11Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 50 days.

At window close

+6.4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+34.8%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+2.7%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$11.11

last close inside the window, ended September 30, 2026

Peak price

$14.08

peak on August 25, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published July 2, 2026

Predicted growth

+24%

over the measurement window

Target price

$12.95

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$10.00 – $10.50

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$10.45

published July 2, 2026

Confidence

78%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

A clear company-specific event: long-term access to the Los Filos site was secured, which lets planning begin to restart mining in phases. That planning, plus solid margins and rising trading interest, makes the next 0-3 months attractive. Risks include the volatile nature of miners, sensitivity to gold prices, and recent earnings misses, so confidence depends on visible restart progress.

Primary drivers

Getting land access at Los Filos lets restart planning move forward
Company guidance omits Los Filos, so its return could add upside
Strong sales growth and margins make a higher valuation plausible
Rising trading activity increases chance of a quick price response

How it played out

EQX: target reached in 50 days

Lyra published a short-term thesis at $10.45, expecting 24% growth to $12.95. The thesis pointed to secured land access at Los Filos, restart planning, possible upside beyond guidance, strong sales and margins, and rising trading activity. It also flagged miner volatility, gold price sensitivity, and recent earnings misses.

The shares reached $12.95 in 50 days and later peaked at $14.08 on August 25, a 34.8% gain. They ended the window at $11.11, below the target but above the $10.45 publication price. The published target was reached within the window, so the thesis played out in full.

What happened during the window

On July 31, 2026, Equinox Gold and Orla Mining completed their business combination. On August 17, 2026, Equinox Gold said the U.S. Bureau of Land Management had issued a positive Record of Decision for South Railroad.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All EQX signals