Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from July 2, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 30, 2026 — +15.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$188.00 – $200.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$198.26Published — price the day we called it

$233.94Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$234.50Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$228.38Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 64 days.

At window close

+15.2%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+18.3%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+2.7%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$228.38

last close inside the window, ended September 30, 2026

Peak price

$234.50

peak on September 4, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published July 2, 2026

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$233.94

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$188.00 – $200.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$198.26

published July 2, 2026

Confidence

73%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA is the clear leader in chips and software used for AI, gaming, and data centers, with very strong profits and cash on hand. Near-term timing is uncertain because recent market talk warns investors are stepping back from AI stocks and the price momentum hasn't recovered. If the market calms, the stock could rebound, but high valuation and many competitors keep it on Watch.

Primary drivers

Industry-leading chips and AI software that drive demand
Large cash reserves and low debt support stability
Recent price decline creates a more attractive risk/reward
Wider sector cooling limits near-term upside potential

How it played out

NVDA: target reached in 64 days

Lyra published the NVDA thesis at $198.26, with expected growth of 18% and a target of $233.94. The thesis pointed to leading chips and software for artificial intelligence, gaming and data centers, along with large cash reserves, low debt and a recent price decline. It also cited sector cooling as a limit on near-term upside.

NVDA reached a peak of $234.50 on September 4, a gain of 18.3%. It reached the target in 64 days, then ended the window at $228.38. The published thesis played out, although the stock finished below the target.

What happened during the window

On August 26, 2026, NVIDIA reported second-quarter revenue of $96.2 billion and data center revenue of $89.0 billion. On September 28, 2026, the company announced a $150 billion increase to its share repurchase authorization.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NVDA signals