Track record · closed signal

First Majestic Silver Corp (AG) — closed signal from July 2, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 30, 2026 — -3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

AG price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$17.20 – $18.30Entry zone — fair-value band

$18.25Published — price the day we called it

$22.99Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$22.19Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$17.69Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 83% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

-3%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+21.6%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+2.7%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$17.69

last close inside the window, ended September 30, 2026

Peak price

$22.19

peak on August 28, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published July 2, 2026

Predicted growth

+26%

over the measurement window

Target price

$22.99

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$17.20 – $18.30

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$18.25

published July 2, 2026

Confidence

80%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

First Majestic looks balanced for the next few months. The company benefits from rising production sensitivity to metal prices, stronger-than-usual cash on hand, and clearer plans for Navidad and Del Toro. A recent test of silver's long-term price level gives a timely reason for interest. Price swings in metals and uneven profit delivery keep the view cautious.

Primary drivers

Silver holding a long-term price level gives a timely catalyst
Navidad permit clears uncertainty around that project
Sale/monetization of Del Toro increases flexibility
Good cash on hand lowers funding pressure for mines

How it played out

AG: the thesis partially played out

Lyra published a short-term thesis on July 2, 2026, from 18.25, with 26% expected growth and a 22.99 target. The thesis pointed to silver holding a long-term price level, cash on hand, a Navidad permit, and Del Toro monetization as drivers. It also noted metal price swings and uneven profit delivery.

AG rose to 22.19 on August 28, a 21.6% peak gain. That stayed below the 22.99 target, so the target was never reached. The stock ended the window at 17.69. The thesis partially played out: the price moved strongly toward the target, then gave back the gain and finished below the publication price.

What happened during the window

On July 30, 2026, First Majestic reported Q2 production of 3.8 million silver ounces and net earnings of $109.4 million. On September 9, 2026, it announced the completed sale of a royalty portfolio for 4,168,056 Metalla shares, valued at about US$20.0 million.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All AG signals