Track record · closed signal

Allison Transmission Holdings Inc (ALSN) — closed signal from July 1, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 29, 2026 — -5.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

ALSN price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$119.46 Published $132.30 Target $113.01 Window close $134.66 Peak
$113.49 – $119.46Entry zone — fair-value band
$119.46Published — price the day we called it
$132.30Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$134.66Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$113.01Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 51 days.

At window close
-5.4%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+12.7%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+2.7%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$113.01
last close inside the window, ended September 29, 2026
Peak price
$134.66
peak on August 26, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
51

The thesis — published July 1, 2026

Predicted growth
+11%
over the measurement window
Target price
$132.30
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$113.49 – $119.46
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$119.46
published July 1, 2026
Confidence
67%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Allison is a short-term idea tied to specific events: joining the MidCap index, a big defense transmission order, and cheaper loan terms. These can push demand in the next few months. However, repeated profit misses, heavy debt, and weak price action limit confidence despite a fair valuation and the dated index event.

Primary drivers

  • Index inclusion can force short-term buying by funds
  • Large defense order adds visible future work
  • Loan repricing reduces interest costs
  • Debt, profit misses, and weak price action limit conviction

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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