Track record · closed signal

Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) — closed signal from July 1, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 29, 2026 — -4.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

GOOGL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$358.67 Published $401.70 Target $340.92 Window close $384.48 Peak
$350.00 – $363.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$358.67Published — price the day we called it
$401.70Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$384.48Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$340.92Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 60% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-4.9%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+7.2%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+2.7%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$340.92
last close inside the window, ended September 29, 2026
Peak price
$384.48
peak on August 5, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published July 1, 2026

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$401.70
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$350.00 – $363.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$358.67
published July 1, 2026
Confidence
70%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Alphabet is a strong, well-funded tech company with big businesses in search, video, cloud, and AI. Earnings and cash position help it withstand market swings. Recent regulatory attention in South Korea and worries about concentration in AI make the short-term outlook less certain. Near-term performance looks like steady quality rather than a clear upward move.

Primary drivers

  • Search, YouTube, cloud and AI give the company large, lasting scale
  • Healthy cash and steady earnings help limit losses in downturns
  • South Korea antitrust action adds near-term regulatory risk
  • Concerns about AI concentration make aggressive growth assumptions harder

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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