Track record · closed signal

Equinox Gold Corp (EQX) — closed signal from July 1, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 29, 2026 — +13.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

EQX price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$10.06 Published $12.27 Target $11.40 Window close $14.08 Peak
$9.80 – $10.40Entry zone — fair-value band
$10.06Published — price the day we called it
$12.27Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$14.08Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$11.40Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 49 days.

At window close
+13.3%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+40%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+2.7%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$11.40
last close inside the window, ended September 29, 2026
Peak price
$14.08
peak on August 25, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
49

The thesis — published July 1, 2026

Predicted growth
+22%
over the measurement window
Target price
$12.27
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$9.80 – $10.40
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$10.06
published July 1, 2026
Confidence
75%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Equinox is included because long-term land access at Los Filos makes restarting and expanding that mine realistic again, and that possibility is not yet in company guidance. The company benefits if gold prices rise, but recent earnings shortfalls, needs on the balance sheet, and typical miner swings keep overall confidence lower than in top-tier tech names.

Primary drivers

  • Long-term Los Filos land deals let restart and expansion planning resume
  • Company guidance does not include Los Filos, so expectations could rise
  • Company value rises if gold demand and prices stay strong
  • Earnings misses and volatile miner behavior reduce conviction

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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