Track record · closed signal

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS) — closed signal from June 30, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 28, 2026 — -12.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

KTOS price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$50.49 Published $60.59 Target $44.07 Window close $67.10 Peak
$48.00 – $52.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$50.49Published — price the day we called it
$60.59Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$67.10Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$44.07Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 36 days.

At window close
-12.7%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+32.9%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+2.8%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$44.07
last close inside the window, ended September 28, 2026
Peak price
$67.10
peak on August 14, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
36

The thesis — published June 30, 2026

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$60.59
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$48.00 – $52.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$50.49
published June 30, 2026
Confidence
66%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Kratos just got named the U.S. maker for Elroy Air and announced a Barq joint venture, which increases visibility in drones and defense systems in the next few months. Big defense spending trends help, but the stock is still an aggressive idea because it trades at a high valuation, insiders are selling and downward price pressure has not yet turned around.

Primary drivers

  • Being the U.S. maker for Elroy Air raises market visibility and credibility
  • The Barq joint venture broadens contract and revenue opportunities
  • Demand for unmanned systems is a long-term industry theme
  • A strong cash balance gives flexibility to fund growth or contracts

How it played out

KTOS: target reached in 36 days, then shares fell back

Lyra published KTOS at $50.49 with an expected 20% gain and a $60.59 target. The thesis pointed to Kratos becoming the U.S. manufacturer for Elroy Air, the Barq joint venture, demand for unmanned systems, and cash available to fund growth or contracts. It also flagged the high valuation, insider selling, and unresolved downward price pressure.

Inside the window, KTOS reached the $60.59 target in 36 days. It later peaked at $67.10 on August 14, a 32.9% gain. By September 28, it had fallen to $44.07, below the publication price. The upside thesis played out within the measured period and exceeded its target, but the gain did not hold through the end.

What happened during the window

On August 4, Kratos reported second-quarter revenue of $458.8 million and raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $1.750 billion to $1.810 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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