Track record · closed signal

Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) — closed signal from June 30, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 28, 2026 — -2.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

GOOGL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$351.85 Published $411.66 Target $342.75 Window close $384.48 Peak
$340.00 – $356.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$351.85Published — price the day we called it
$411.66Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$384.48Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$342.75Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 55% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-2.6%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+9.3%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+2.8%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$342.75
last close inside the window, ended September 28, 2026
Peak price
$384.48
peak on August 5, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published June 30, 2026

Predicted growth
+17%
over the measurement window
Target price
$411.66
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$340.00 – $356.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$351.85
published June 30, 2026
Confidence
79%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Alphabet is a large, steady growth company whose main businesses-search, YouTube and cloud-still make lots of cash. Recent weakness looks linked to AI-focused moves and portfolio rebalancing rather than company-specific news, so the case depends on earnings holding up and sensible valuation. Weak short-term trend and regulatory risk limit upside.

Primary drivers

  • Search and YouTube generate steady cash over time
  • Cloud and AI work keep the company relevant long term
  • Market shifts make valuation and discipline more important
  • Recent pullback gives a clearer short-term entry setup

How it played out

GOOGL: target missed after a 9.3% peak gain

Lyra published a short-term thesis for 17% growth from a price of $351.85. The thesis pointed to steady cash from Search and YouTube, continued relevance from cloud and artificial intelligence work, valuation discipline, and a clearer entry after the recent pullback. It also identified the weak short-term trend and regulatory risk as limits.

GOOGL rose to a peak of $384.48 on August 5, a 9.3% gain. That peak stayed below the $411.66 target, which was never reached. The stock ended the window at $342.75, below its publication price. The thesis partially played out, but the expected growth did not.

What happened during the window

On September 9, 2026, Google announced plans to invest at least €13 billion in digital infrastructure in Finland during 2027 and 2028.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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