Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from June 30, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 28, 2026 — +16.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$188.00 – $199.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$196.64Published — price the day we called it

$239.90Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$234.50Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$228.86Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 88% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

+16.4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+19.3%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+2.8%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$228.86

last close inside the window, ended September 28, 2026

Peak price

$234.50

peak on September 4, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published June 30, 2026

Predicted growth

+22%

over the measurement window

Target price

$239.90

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$188.00 – $199.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$196.64

published June 30, 2026

Confidence

82%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA is a leading supplier of chips and systems for AI and data centers. Profit margins and earnings are rising quickly, and the company has a solid balance sheet to handle swings in the chip market. Industry updates support ongoing hardware demand but also highlight tougher competition. A recent price pullback creates a plausible short-term rebound scenario, though downside pressure keeps conviction measured.

Primary drivers

Growing, long-term demand for AI chips and systems
Strong cash and low leverage help weather volatility
Industry news shows steady demand but more competition
Price pullback improves a short-term rebound setup

How it played out

NVDA: the 22% target was missed

Lyra published a short-term rebound thesis at $196.64, with expected growth of 22% and a $239.90 target. The thesis pointed to long-term demand for artificial intelligence chips and systems, rising margins and earnings, strong cash, low leverage, steady hardware demand, tougher competition, and a recent price pullback.

The shares rose to a $234.50 peak on September 4, a gain of 19.3%. They stayed below the $239.90 target throughout the window. NVDA ended at $228.86 on September 28. The rebound played out, but the published target was never reached. The thesis partially played out.

What happened during the window

On August 10, NVIDIA announced financing partnerships intended to mobilize over $500 billion for artificial intelligence infrastructure. On August 26, NVIDIA and AWS announced plans to deploy 2 million additional NVIDIA GPUs across AWS infrastructure. These announcements occurred during the measurement window, but the data did not establish that they caused the price move.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NVDA signals