Track record · closed signal

Lam Research Corp (LRCX) — closed signal from June 29, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 27, 2026 — -19.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

LRCX price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$391.63 Published $446.45 Target $315.21 Window close $438.50 Peak
$365.00 – $392.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$391.63Published — price the day we called it
$446.45Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$438.50Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$315.21Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 86% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close
-19.5%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+12%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+4.4%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$315.21
last close inside the window, ended September 27, 2026
Peak price
$438.50
peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published June 29, 2026

Predicted growth
+14%
over the measurement window
Target price
$446.45
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$365.00 – $392.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$391.63
published June 29, 2026
Confidence
73%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Recent reports and a major brokerage raise suggest a longer-term demand cycle for chipmaking equipment driven by artificial intelligence, memory chips and advanced packaging. The company reports steady profits and recent price trends are positive. Main risk: the stock has already moved up and older target data offer less support than recent news.

Primary drivers

  • Brokerage upgrades point to a longer equipment spending cycle
  • AI and memory demand driving more chipmaking investment
  • Company has delivered steady profits in recent quarters
  • Price trend is positive but the move is no longer at a very early stage

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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