Track record · closed signal

Oracle Corporation (ORCL) — closed signal from August 13, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 11, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

ORCL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$255.78 Published $296.19 Target $236.15 Window close $345.12 Peak
$253.12 – $257.11Entry zone — fair-value band
$255.78Published — price the day we called it
$296.19Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$345.12Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$236.15Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 28 days.

Peak price
$345.12
peak on September 10, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+34.9%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$236.15
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
28
Window
August 13, 2025 – November 11, 2025

The thesis — published August 13, 2025

Predicted growth
+16%
over the measurement window
Target price
$296.19
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$253.12 – $257.11
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$255.78
published August 13, 2025
Confidence
69%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

- Explain the cloud shift - Flag new wins - Outline a careful buy plan - Note near-term risks Oracle's stock fell and may be ready to recover as its cloud business grows. NetSuite will serve 40 public transit groups, and improved Oracle Cloud licenses make switching easier. Because profits and sales lag, begin with small buys and add only if price and buying interest firm up over the next 0-3 months.

Primary drivers

  • Stock looks beaten down; recent average price trend is turning up
  • New NetSuite deal puts the software into 40 public transit groups
  • Improved Oracle Cloud licenses make it easier for customers to switch
  • Price action is firming even while profits and sales remain soft

How it played out

ORCL: target reached in 28 days

Lyra published ORCL on 2025-08-13 at $255.78 with a short-term 16% expected gain and a $296.19 target. The thesis pointed to a beaten-down stock with a recent average price trend turning up, a NetSuite deal covering 40 public transit groups, improved Oracle Cloud licenses, and firmer price action despite soft profits and sales.

Inside the window, ORCL reached the target in 28 days. It peaked at $345.12 on 2025-09-10, a 34.9% gain. By 2025-11-11 it had ended at $236.15. The thesis played out on the target test, even though the stock later fell below the publication price.

What happened during the window

On 2025-09-22, Oracle appointed Clay Magouyrk and Mike Sicilia as co-CEOs, while Safra Catz moved to executive vice chair of the board.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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