Track record · closed signal

Equinox Gold Corp (EQX) — closed signal from June 26, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 24, 2026 — +19.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

EQX price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$9.25 – $10.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$9.79Published — price the day we called it

$11.75Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$14.08Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$11.73Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 42 days.

At window close

+19.8%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+43.8%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+5.5%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$11.73

last close inside the window, ended September 24, 2026

Peak price

$14.08

peak on August 25, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published June 26, 2026

Predicted growth

+20%

over the measurement window

Target price

$11.75

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$9.25 – $10.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$9.79

published June 26, 2026

Confidence

67%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Equinox Gold just secured long-term land access for Los Filos and is moving restart work forward, which could make near-term production easier to see. Combining with Orla would make the company bigger, but restarting mines and metal-price swings are risky. Recent results and weak market signals keep the view cautious despite high operating leverage.

Primary drivers

Land access for Los Filos makes a restart more likely and clearer
Planned Orla deal would increase company size and scale
More gold exposure reduces some stock-market volatility for the company
Plans to expand production give a visible near-term catalyst

How it played out

EQX: target reached in 42 days

Lyra published EQX at $9.79 with an expected gain of 20% and a $11.75 target. The thesis pointed to land access and restart work at Los Filos, the planned Orla deal, added gold exposure, and production expansion. It also noted restart and metal-price risks, recent results, and weak market signals.

EQX reached the target in 42 days. It rose to $14.08 on August 25, a peak gain of 43.8%. The price ended the window at $11.73 on September 24, just under the target. The thesis played out within the window and exceeded its expected gain at the peak.

What happened during the window

On July 31, Equinox Gold completed its business combination with Orla Mining. On August 5, the company reported second-quarter results and raised its 2026 production guidance.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All EQX signals