Track record · closed signal

Trade Desk Inc (TTD) — closed signal from June 26, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 24, 2026 — -30.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TTD price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$18.13 Published $21.75 Target $12.63 Window close $20.54 Peak
$17.00 – $18.50Entry zone — fair-value band
$18.13Published — price the day we called it
$21.75Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$20.54Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$12.63Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 67% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-30.3%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+13.3%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+5.5%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$12.63
last close inside the window, ended September 24, 2026
Peak price
$20.54
peak on July 13, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published June 26, 2026

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$21.75
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$17.00 – $18.50
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$18.13
published June 26, 2026
Confidence
68%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Trade Desk is a higher-risk short-term rebound idea after a big industry selloff. The company has a relatively strong balance sheet and has surprised on earnings before, which gives upside potential, but shares fell more than the market and valuation concerns remain. The price trend is weak, so the situation is tactical and requires caution around timing.

Primary drivers

  • Independent ad-buying platform that could recover as ad demand improves
  • Healthy balance sheet reduces short-term survival risk
  • History of bigger-than-expected earnings that can lift shares
  • Recent heavy selling lowers valuation and creates potential opportunity

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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