Track record · closed signal

Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) — closed signal from June 26, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 24, 2026 — +0.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

GOOGL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$341.40 Published $389.20 Target $342.36 Window close $384.48 Peak
$325.00 – $345.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$341.40Published — price the day we called it
$389.20Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$384.48Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$342.36Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 90% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close
+0.3%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+12.6%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+5.5%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$342.36
last close inside the window, ended September 24, 2026
Peak price
$384.48
peak on August 5, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published June 26, 2026

Predicted growth
+14%
over the measurement window
Target price
$389.20
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$325.00 – $345.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$341.40
published June 26, 2026
Confidence
67%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Alphabet's core businesses - Search, YouTube, cloud and its AI platform - give it steady cash generation and high margins, supporting a controlled rebound. However, recent tax-related policy headlines and AI-cost stories have weighed on sentiment, and market action has not yet confirmed a durable turn. Near-term (0-3 months) looks constructive only if price stabilizes at support.

Primary drivers

  • Search, YouTube and cloud provide steady cash and scale
  • Digital-services tax headlines raise regulatory and policy risk
  • AI-related cost stories are pressuring large-cap tech sentiment
  • Price looks oversold; stabilization would signal rebound potential

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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