Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from June 26, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 24, 2026 — +15% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$185.00 – $198.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$195.21Published — price the day we called it

$238.16Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$234.50Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$224.58Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 91% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

+15%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+20.1%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+5.5%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$224.58

last close inside the window, ended September 24, 2026

Peak price

$234.50

peak on September 4, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published June 26, 2026

Predicted growth

+22%

over the measurement window

Target price

$238.16

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$185.00 – $198.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$195.21

published June 26, 2026

Confidence

74%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA looks attractive because strong demand for AI data-center gear, high profit margins, and a solid balance sheet make a recovery plausible even though markets are cautious. Recent reports about data centers adopting advanced cooling add to the case for steady infrastructure spending, but short-term price action is weak so timing is cautious.

Primary drivers

AI data-center hardware continues as the main sales driver
Cooling-infrastructure reports point to sustained data-center spending
High profitability and a strong balance sheet reduce downside risk
Currently cheap price action could enable a rebound if it steadies

How it played out

NVDA: the thesis partially played out

On June 26, Lyra published a short-term recovery thesis for NVDA at $195.21, with expected growth of 22% and a target of $238.16. The thesis pointed to demand for artificial intelligence data-center hardware, cooling infrastructure spending, high profitability, a strong balance sheet, and weak short-term price action that could allow a rebound.

During the window, NVDA rose to a peak of $234.50 on September 4, a gain of 20.1%. It stayed below the $238.16 target, so the target was never reached. The stock ended the window at $224.58 on September 24. The thesis partially played out: the expected rebound came close, but missed the published target.

What happened during the window

On August 10, NVIDIA announced partnerships to establish compute financing platforms for artificial intelligence infrastructure. On August 26, NVIDIA reported second-quarter revenue of $96.2 billion and data-center revenue of $89.0 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NVDA signals