Track record · closed signal

Harmony Biosciences Holdings (HRMY) — closed signal from June 25, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 23, 2026 — +16.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

HRMY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$34.70 Published $40.60 Target $40.48 Window close $43.49 Peak
$33.25 – $35.25Entry zone — fair-value band
$34.70Published — price the day we called it
$40.60Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$43.49Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$40.48Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 68 days.

At window close
+16.7%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+25.3%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+4.8%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$40.48
last close inside the window, ended September 23, 2026
Peak price
$43.49
peak on September 3, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
68

The thesis — published June 25, 2026

Predicted growth
+17%
over the measurement window
Target price
$40.60
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$33.25 – $35.25
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$34.70
published June 25, 2026
Confidence
67%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Harmony is a healthcare idea driven by near-term data and guidance rather than strong share-price momentum. The company is profitable and has a healthy balance sheet. Upcoming pitolisant data and reaffirmed sales guidance give a clear short-term story, but recent profit misses and very light trading mean confidence is limited until execution and interest pick up.

Primary drivers

  • Upcoming pitolisant data offers a clear news event
  • Reaffirmed sales guidance reduces uncertainty
  • Current profitability lowers development risk
  • Strong cash position supports future work

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All HRMY signals