Track record · closed signal

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) — closed signal from June 25, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 23, 2026 — +2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

LLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$1,128.40 Published $1,241.24 Target $1,150.99 Window close $1,292.65 Peak
$1,090.00 – $1,135.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$1,128.40Published — price the day we called it
$1,241.24Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$1,292.65Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$1,150.99Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 12 days.

At window close
+2%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+14.6%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+4.8%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$1,150.99
last close inside the window, ended September 23, 2026
Peak price
$1,292.65
peak on August 19, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
12

The thesis — published June 25, 2026

Predicted growth
+10%
over the measurement window
Target price
$1,241.24
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$1,090.00 – $1,135.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$1,128.40
published June 25, 2026
Confidence
73%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Eli Lilly looks like a steady healthcare holding because its drugs for obesity and diabetes are selling well, earnings have been strong, and new access for Zepbound makes future sales clearer. The stock is already priced for good results, and it has not shown a clear pickup in price momentum, so near-term upside is likely limited to selective gains.

Primary drivers

  • Zepbound access updates make future demand easier to see
  • Obesity and diabetes drugs continue to drive strong sales
  • Recent earnings performance increases confidence in forecasts
  • Healthcare exposure helps the stock hold up when markets are weak

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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