Track record · closed signal

Trade Desk Inc (TTD) — closed signal from June 24, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 22, 2026 — -27% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TTD price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$16.80 – $18.30Entry zone — fair-value band

$18.06Published — price the day we called it

$21.31Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$20.54Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$13.18Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 76% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-27%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+13.7%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+5.7%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$13.18

last close inside the window, ended September 22, 2026

Peak price

$20.54

peak on July 13, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published June 24, 2026

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$21.31

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$16.80 – $18.30

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$18.06

published June 24, 2026

Confidence

63%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Trade Desk looks like a possible but risky rebound. A settlement with a big partner and new leadership give a clear reason the business could reset, and lots of cash reduces financial pressure. Still, the share price has been badly hit, buying interest is not clearly sustained, and advertising demand swings with the economy, so upside is only likely if prices stabilize.

Primary drivers

Settlement with Publicis removes a big overhang on the stock
Leadership changes create a believable story of operational reset
Strong cash position reduces the risk of financial strain
Deeply oversold shares leave room for a rebound if stabilized

How it played out

TTD: rebound started, but the target was never reached

Lyra published a risky rebound thesis at $18.06, with expected growth of 18% toward $21.31. The thesis pointed to the Publicis settlement, leadership changes, a strong cash position, and oversold shares. It also warned that buying interest was not clearly sustained and that the rebound depended on prices stabilizing.

TTD rose to a peak of $20.54 on July 13, a gain of 13.7%, but stayed below the target. It never got there. By September 22, the stock had fallen to $13.18. The rebound thesis partially played out early in the window, then failed to hold through the end.

What happened during the window

On August 6, 2026, The Trade Desk reported its second-quarter results and said the quarter had not met its own standard. On August 27, 2026, the company introduced Kokai Zuma, a new release of its advertising platform.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All TTD signals