Track record · closed signal

Harmony Biosciences Holdings (HRMY) — closed signal from June 24, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 22, 2026 — +18.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

HRMY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$35.01 Published $40.61 Target $41.53 Window close $43.49 Peak
$32.50 – $35.25Entry zone — fair-value band
$35.01Published — price the day we called it
$40.61Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$43.49Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$41.53Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 69 days.

At window close
+18.6%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+24.2%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+5.7%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$41.53
last close inside the window, ended September 22, 2026
Peak price
$43.49
peak on September 3, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
69

The thesis — published June 24, 2026

Predicted growth
+16%
over the measurement window
Target price
$40.61
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$32.50 – $35.25
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$35.01
published June 24, 2026
Confidence
64%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Harmony is a small drug company focused on rare brain conditions with a main product, WAKIX. The stock looks reasonable on valuation and has a healthy cash cushion. Recent guidance and scientific presentations keep interest in the drug. Drawbacks are weaker recent results, downward price momentum, and light trading, so the idea is a short-term selective play, not a broad buy.

Primary drivers

  • Reaffirmed sales guidance supports WAKIX durability
  • Scientific presentations keep attention on the main drug
  • Healthy cash levels lower the chance of needing new financing
  • Recent missed earnings make the setup more tactical

How it played out

HRMY: target reached in 69 days

Lyra published a short-term thesis at $35.01, looking for 16% growth. The thesis pointed to reaffirmed WAKIX sales guidance, scientific presentations, a healthy cash cushion, and valuation. It also flagged weaker recent results, falling price momentum, and light trading, so the setup was tactical.

Within the window, HRMY reached the $40.61 target in 69 days. It peaked at $43.49 on September 3, a 24.2% gain from publication. The shares ended the window at $41.53, still above the target. The thesis played out and exceeded its stated objective.

What happened during the window

On July 16, 2026, Harmony preannounced approximately $261 million in second-quarter WAKIX net revenue and reaffirmed full-year net revenue guidance of $1.0 billion to $1.04 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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