Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from June 24, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 22, 2026 — +14.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$192.00 – $205.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$200.66Published — price the day we called it

$248.82Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$234.50Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$228.87Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 70% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+14.1%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+16.9%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+5.7%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$228.87

last close inside the window, ended September 22, 2026

Peak price

$234.50

peak on September 4, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published June 24, 2026

Predicted growth

+24%

over the measurement window

Target price

$248.82

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$192.00 – $205.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$200.66

published June 24, 2026

Confidence

74%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA is positioned to rebound from AI demand. The company has strong profits, cash, and high demand for its AI chips, but the share price is volatile and trading below its recent trend. Recent memory-demand headlines help the AI supply chain more than NVIDIA directly. If market risk appetite steadies over 0-3 months, further upside is possible.

Primary drivers

Demand for AI chips is the main growth driver
Memory-demand news strengthens the wider AI supply chain
High profits and cash reserves preserve company quality
Recent pullback creates rebound potential if risk appetite improves

How it played out

NVDA: the thesis partly played out

Lyra published a short-term rebound thesis at $200.66 and expected 24% growth. The thesis pointed to demand for artificial intelligence chips, stronger demand across the wider supply chain, high profits and cash reserves, and rebound potential after the recent pullback if market risk appetite improved.

The shares rose to a $234.50 peak on September 4, a 16.9% gain, but stayed below the $248.82 target. The target was never reached. NVDA ended the window at $228.87. The thesis partly played out because the expected rebound occurred, but the published target was missed.

What happened during the window

On August 26, NVIDIA reported second-quarter revenue of $96.2 billion, up 18% from the previous quarter and 106% from a year earlier. The same day, NVIDIA and AWS announced plans to deploy 2 million additional NVIDIA GPUs across AWS infrastructure in 2027 and 2028.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NVDA signals