Track record · closed signal

Valley National Bancorp (VLY) — closed signal from June 24, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 22, 2026 — -8.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

VLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$13.58 – $14.27Entry zone — fair-value band

$14.35Published — price the day we called it

$15.37Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$15.08Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$13.12Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 64% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-8.5%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+5.1%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+5.7%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$13.12

last close inside the window, ended September 22, 2026

Peak price

$15.08

peak on July 16, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published June 24, 2026

Predicted growth

+8%

over the measurement window

Target price

$15.37

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$13.58 – $14.27

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$14.35

published June 24, 2026

Confidence

70%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Valley National shows steady profit performance, a fair price for its earnings, and short-term market strength. Recent work on cloud and AI could help cut costs and make banking operations more efficient-important for a regional bank under pressure about funding and loans. Expected upside is modest; it mainly offers diversification if bank news stays calm in the next few months.

Primary drivers

Consistent earnings results from regional banking operations
Stock price is fair given recent profit trends
Cloud and AI projects may lower operating costs
Positive short-term market tone despite low volume

How it played out

VLY: early gain fell short of the target

Lyra published a short-term thesis that expected 8% growth from 14.35 toward 15.37. The thesis pointed to consistent regional banking earnings, a fair price against recent profit trends, cloud and artificial intelligence projects that might lower costs, and positive short-term market tone despite low volume.

On July 16, 2026, the stock peaked at 15.08, a 5.1% gain. It stayed below the 15.37 target, so the target was never reached. By September 22, 2026, it had fallen to 13.12, below the 14.35 publication price. The thesis partially played out early in the window, but it missed its stated goal and did not hold the gain.

What happened during the window

On July 23, 2026, Valley reported second-quarter net income of $170.9 million and $0.29 per diluted share. On August 25, 2026, Valley announced an agreement to acquire Providence Financial Corporation.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All VLY signals