Track record · closed signal

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc. (ARI) — closed signal from June 23, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 21, 2026 — +44.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

ARI price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$1.76 – $1.87Entry zone — fair-value band

$4.46Published — price the day we called it

$2.09Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$7.10Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$6.43Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 7 days.

At window close

+44.2%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+59.2%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+5.7%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$6.43

last close inside the window, ended September 21, 2026

Peak price

$7.10

peak on July 16, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published June 23, 2026

Predicted growth

+13%

over the measurement window

Target price

$2.09

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$1.76 – $1.87

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$4.46

published June 23, 2026

Confidence

71%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

ARI is a special situation tied to a clear short-term timeline: the company sold a big loan portfolio, announced a large special dividend, and the board is pursuing a path that could lead to liquidation if shareholders agree. Those developments set up a likely 0-3 month event window, but price adjustments after the dividend, timing slip, use of leverage, and the need for a shareholder vote make the outcome uncertain and reduce confidence despite a visible reference value.

Primary drivers

Sale of loans creates a concrete cash event supporting value
Large special dividend should boost near-term total return
Liquidation path gives a clearer measure of company value
Dividend timing and shareholder approval add meaningful execution risk

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All ARI signals