Track record · closed signal

EZCORP Inc. (EZPW) — closed signal from June 23, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 21, 2026 — -7.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

EZPW price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$32.66 Published $37.56 Target $30.11 Window close $36.63 Peak
$30.50 – $33.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$32.66Published — price the day we called it
$37.56Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$36.63Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$30.11Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 81% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close
-7.8%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+12.2%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+5.7%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$30.11
last close inside the window, ended September 21, 2026
Peak price
$36.63
peak on July 6, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published June 23, 2026

Predicted growth
+15%
over the measurement window
Target price
$37.56
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$30.50 – $33.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$32.66
published June 23, 2026
Confidence
74%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

EZCORP benefits when consumers feel financial strain because pawn shops see more loan and resale activity. High gold prices make collateral and used-goods margins better. Recent earnings were solid, but insiders selling after a strong run means upside is more limited and valuation caution is needed.

Primary drivers

  • Pawn loans tend to hold up when consumers are under financial pressure
  • Higher gold prices improve collateral value and resale margins
  • Recent quarterly results show the business is executing well
  • Insider selling and recent strong gains reduce near-term upside

How it played out

EZPW: rose 12.2% but missed the target

Lyra published EZPW at $32.66 with a 15% growth expectation and a $37.56 target. The thesis pointed to resilient pawn loans under consumer financial pressure, higher gold prices, solid recent quarterly results, and limited near-term upside after insider selling and recent gains.

EZPW peaked at $36.63 on July 6, 2026, a 12.2% gain. It stayed below the $37.56 target and never reached it. The stock ended the window at $30.11 on September 21, 2026. The thesis partially played out because the price rose toward the expected level, but the target was missed and the gain did not hold.

What happened during the window

On August 5, 2026, EZCORP reported third-quarter revenue of $418.7 million, up 35%, and diluted earnings per share of $0.48, up 41%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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