Track record · closed signal

Insulet Corporation (PODD) — closed signal from June 23, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 21, 2026 — -2.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

PODD price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$138.00 – $148.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$144.17Published — price the day we called it

$171.56Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$172.92Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$140.53Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 35 days.

At window close

-2.5%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+19.9%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+5.7%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$140.53

last close inside the window, ended September 21, 2026

Peak price

$172.92

peak on July 28, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published June 23, 2026

Predicted growth

+19%

over the measurement window

Target price

$171.56

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$138.00 – $148.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$144.17

published June 23, 2026

Confidence

82%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Insulet's recent Omnipod study makes it likelier that more people will use its automated insulin pump. The company has shown steady operating results and repeated on-target earnings, which lowers surprise risk. The stock pulled back but buying interest is improving, making a short-term setup. Valuation and FDA timing limit how bullish the outlook is.

Primary drivers

New Omnipod study supports broader adoption of the automated pump
Consistent earnings performance reduces surprise risk for estimates
Exposure to healthcare growth helps diversify from big tech concentration
Buying interest is rising while valuation and regulatory risks remain controlled

How it played out

PODD: target reached in 35 days

Lyra published a short-term thesis at $144.17, with 19% expected growth and a $171.56 target. The thesis pointed to an Omnipod study that supported broader pump adoption, consistent earnings performance that reduced surprise risk, and rising buying interest. It also noted valuation and regulatory risks.

During the window, PODD reached $172.92 on July 28, a 19.9% peak gain. It reached the target in 35 days. The price later fell and ended the window at $140.53, below both the target and the publication price. The thesis played out within the stated window because the target was reached.

What happened during the window

On July 6, 2026, Insulet announced the launch of Omnipod 5 and Omnipod Discover in Spain. On August 5, 2026, the company reported second-quarter revenue of $801.7 million, up 23.5%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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