Track record · closed signal

Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) — closed signal from June 22, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 20, 2026 — +26.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

PGY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$15.00 – $16.50Entry zone — fair-value band

$16.13Published — price the day we called it

$19.52Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$23.68Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$20.42Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 39 days.

At window close

+26.6%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+46.8%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+2.6%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$20.42

last close inside the window, ended September 20, 2026

Peak price

$23.68

peak on August 28, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published June 22, 2026

Predicted growth

+21%

over the measurement window

Target price

$19.52

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$15.00 – $16.50

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$16.13

published June 22, 2026

Confidence

67%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Pagaya is a risky small-cap pick whose near-term gains depend on how well it raises money through loan deals, not on a wide, stable business. Recent news of a larger personal-loan securitization and improving forecast trends give a short-term boost, but big swings in price, sensitivity to borrowing costs, and insider moves make the next 0-3 months tactical rather than a steady opportunity.

Primary drivers

Bigger personal-loan securitization improves access to funding
Upward estimate trends make near-term progress more visible
AI-driven credit platform could change investor perception
High price swings and leverage make the setup riskier

How it played out

PGY: target reached in 39 days

Lyra published a short-term thesis for 21% growth from a $16.13 publication price. The thesis pointed to a larger personal-loan securitization, improving forecast trends and the credit platform. It also warned that high price swings, leverage and borrowing costs made the setup risky.

PGY reached the $19.52 target in 39 days. It later peaked at $23.68 on August 28, a 46.8% gain. The stock ended the window at $20.42, still above the target. The thesis played out and exceeded its stated price objective.

What happened during the window

On July 30, Pagaya reported second-quarter results and raised its full-year net income guidance. On September 16, it announced an agreement with Neuberger Specialty Finance for purchases of up to $700 million in auto loans.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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