Track record · closed signal

Trade Desk Inc (TTD) — closed signal from June 22, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 20, 2026 — -24.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TTD price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$17.50 – $18.80Entry zone — fair-value band

$18.44Published — price the day we called it

$21.38Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$20.54Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$13.92Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 71% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-24.5%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+11.4%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+2.6%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$13.92

last close inside the window, ended September 20, 2026

Peak price

$20.54

peak on July 13, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published June 22, 2026

Predicted growth

+16%

over the measurement window

Target price

$21.38

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$17.50 – $18.80

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$18.44

published June 22, 2026

Confidence

68%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Trade Desk looks like a candidate for a limited rebound rather than a clear strong trend. A recent settlement, new leadership, and a travel-data tie-up improve prospects after worries about agency relationships. The company has a healthy balance sheet, but revenue and profit growth are slowing, so near-term upside depends on ad spending and sentiment stabilizing.

Primary drivers

Settlement eases worries with big agency partners
Agoda tie-up adds travel-related data and demand
Strong balance sheet makes short-term recovery more viable
Slowing profit growth keeps the opportunity cautious

How it played out

TTD: rebound fell short of the target

Lyra published TTD at $18.43 on June 22, expecting a limited rebound of 16% rather than a clear strong trend. The thesis pointed to a recent settlement, new leadership, an Agoda travel-data tie-up, and a healthy balance sheet. It also noted slowing revenue and profit growth and depended on ad spending and sentiment stabilizing.

TTD rose to a window peak of $20.54 on July 13, a gain of 11.4%. That stayed below the $21.38 target, which was never reached. The price then ended the window at $13.92 on September 20. The rebound partly played out, but the full thesis missed because the expected 16% gain did not arrive.

What happened during the window

On July 15, The Trade Desk appointed Kristi Argyilan as Chief Commercial Officer and Executive Vice President. On August 6, the company reported its second-quarter financial results and said the quarter did not meet its standard.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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