Track record · closed signal

Dell Technologies Inc (DELL) — closed signal from June 22, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 20, 2026 — +32.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

DELL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$393.70 – $418.62Entry zone — fair-value band

$429.37Published — price the day we called it

$480.10Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$595.51Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$568.06Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 44 days.

At window close

+32.3%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+38.7%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+2.6%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$568.06

last close inside the window, ended September 20, 2026

Peak price

$595.51

peak on September 18, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published June 22, 2026

Predicted growth

+12%

over the measurement window

Target price

$480.10

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$393.70 – $418.62

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$429.37

published June 22, 2026

Confidence

73%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Dell has clear momentum from strong AI server sales and a big backlog that makes near-term revenue more certain. That operating gain could push the stock higher over the next few months, but the recent sharp rise means the price is already extended, buying interest is easing, and insider trading makes conviction cautious for now.

Primary drivers

Growing demand for AI servers is driving business growth
A large backlog makes upcoming sales more predictable
Faster recent earnings show the business is accelerating
Recent strong price moves and insider trades temper conviction

How it played out

DELL: target reached in 44 days

Lyra published the DELL thesis on June 22 at $429.37, with 12% expected growth and a $480.10 target. The thesis pointed to demand for artificial intelligence servers, a large backlog, and faster recent earnings. It also noted that the recent price rise, easing buying interest, and insider trades tempered conviction.

The stock reached the target in 44 days. It later peaked at $595.51 on September 18, a 38.7% gain. It ended the window at $568.06, still above the target. The thesis played out and exceeded its stated price objective.

What happened during the window

On July 24, Dell said the Texas A&M Engineering Experiment Station had selected it to build a research computing platform. On September 1, Dell reported second-quarter revenue of $47.0 billion, up 58% year over year.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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