Track record · closed signal

Harmony Biosciences Holdings (HRMY) — closed signal from June 22, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 20, 2026 — +25.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

HRMY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$33.49 Published $39.18 Target $42.02 Window close $43.49 Peak
$32.00 – $34.50Entry zone — fair-value band
$33.49Published — price the day we called it
$39.18Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$43.49Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$42.02Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 43 days.

At window close
+25.5%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+29.9%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+2.6%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$42.02
last close inside the window, ended September 20, 2026
Peak price
$43.49
peak on September 3, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
43

The thesis — published June 22, 2026

Predicted growth
+17%
over the measurement window
Target price
$39.18
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$32.00 – $34.50
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$33.49
published June 22, 2026
Confidence
72%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Measured healthcare catalyst: reasonable profitability, cash flexibility, and upcoming pitolisant presentations give a clear path for near-term news. Reaffirmed guidance reduces worry after uneven results, and valuation helps cushion event risk. However, thin trading and recent misses make this a short-term, tactical setup over the next 0-3 months.

Primary drivers

  • Pitolisant data timing creates near-term clinical news flow
  • Reaffirmed guidance backs the company's commercial track record
  • Strong cash position reduces small-cap funding risk
  • Light trading and past misses temper confidence

How it played out

HRMY: target reached in 43 days

Lyra published a short-term thesis at $33.49, with 17% expected growth and a $39.18 target. The thesis pointed to upcoming pitolisant presentations, reaffirmed guidance, reasonable profitability, and cash flexibility. It also flagged light trading and past misses as limits on confidence.

HRMY reached the target in 43 days. It later peaked at $43.49 on September 3, a 29.9% gain, and ended the window at $42.02. Both the peak and closing price were above the target. The published thesis played out and exceeded its stated price objective within the measurement window.

What happened during the window

On July 16, 2026, Harmony reported preliminary second-quarter net product revenue of approximately $261 million and reaffirmed full-year revenue guidance of $1.0 billion to $1.04 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Share this receipt

A scored call, published before the outcome was known. Paste the link anywhere — it unfurls as the card above.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All HRMY signals